I am in New Orleans for the ASSA meetings, or what my wife calls "Econopalooza." I am not on Dartmouth's recruiting committee, so I am soaking up as much as I can from the sessions on neuroeconomics and matching theory, two interesting fields where I've got a lot to learn.
This is my first trip to post-Katrina New Orleans. Compared to the last time I was here, it feels quite empty.
Sorry, Mom.
Mysterious attraction?
The latter refers to this study in Accident Analysis & Prevention. Here's the surprising result:
As some have noted, in percentage terms, it seems to be a small impact.
It may not yet be a staple of federal budget policy, but dynamic scoring has come to the New Hampshire/Massachusetts border. From Friday's Associated Press:
The long-planned expansion of Interstate 93 has been pushed a little further down the road. A federal judge ruled yesterday that before they can move ahead with the project, state and federal highway officials must do more work to study the population growth that would be spurred by the widening itself.
The ruling was a victory for environmentalists who argue that widening the road to four lanes between Manchester and the Massachusetts border would itself cause population growth that will lessen the usefulness of the widening, congest secondary roads and cause air pollution.
Before leaving the Hawaii retroblog, I thought I'd share two pictures of the submarine ride that my son and I took. There are a few sunken treasures 80 - 100 feet below the surface of the Pacific Ocean off the coast of Oahu. Here are two pictures of a ship (there are also man-made reefs and an airplane fuselage, to say nothing of the wildlife):
Unfortunately, the two turtles sitting on top of the ship didn't make it into this picture:
Enjoy!
For my second to last post about our trip to Hawaii, I wanted to point out something about energy consumption and CO2 emissions that I had not previously appreciated.
We flew from Boston to San Francisco (2704 miles) and then San Francisco to Honolulu (2398 miles), for a total of 5102 miles each way or 10204 miles total. How much fuel did we use (assigning us our per capita share for the plane as a whole)?
This page cites an FAA estimate of 48 miles-per-gallon-per-seat and notes that a gallon of jet fuel and a gallon of gasoline create about the same amount of CO2 emissions. This means that as a family, our share of the fuel used was about 4 x 10204 / 48 = 850 gallons. Let's compare that to two other fuel numbers around the Samwick household.
First, I estimate that we drive our cars no more than 1000 miles a month on average and get at least 20 miles per gallon on average, resulting in gasoline consumption of no more than (12 x 1000 / 20) = 600 gallons per year.
Second, we have used about 1100 gallons of #2 fuel oil to heat our home in each of the past few years. (What can I say, we like to be comfortable?) This page shows the CO2 emissions by fuel type, putting the fuel oil on a par with jet fuel, which are both a bit higher than gasoline.
One (glorious) trip to Hawaii used 75% of the fuel we use to heat our home or 140% of the fuel we use to power our cars, with corresponding amounts of CO2 emitted.
As it pertains to energy and environmental policy, this example shows how important it is to be comprehensive in our attempts to reduce oil demand. The most straightforward way to do that is to levy a tax on all fuel products derived from petroleum. It allows abatement to occur at every possible margin--by flying, driving, or heating less or by using technologies that are more fuel efficient.
Frequent reader and commenter Nathan Kaufman points us to this interesting recap of how hard Hawaii's economy was hit by the reduction in travel in the year after 9/11.
It seems like, as of a few years ago, it had rebounded, and in my earlier post, I suggested that a new decline is emerging. Nathan further suggests a link to the Japanese economy, which I agree merits a further look.
Continuing with my Hawaii retroblogging, it was no easy task, though easier than I thought it would be, to get from Hanover to Honolulu with two young children.
The toughest part was literally the first mile, from the hotel at Logan airport in Boston to the gate. At five o'clock in the morning on the first Saturday of the summer, the terminal was an absolute mob scene. Not quite at the level of my experiences in Beijing or Delhi or even Toronto on a summer travel weekend during a labor strike. We left ourselves two hours and made it with little time to spare.
We flew United by way of San Francisco, and all of the usual inconveniences were there, but the planes were filled to capacity, the tickets weren't cheap, and the service was generally okay. It was more apparent what was behind recent good news in the financial markets for the company. So I assume the airline is making as much money as it is ever going to, unless it can magically lower fuel prices or overcome historic management challenges.
Another interesting event--the flight from Honolulu back to San Francisco was the first time I recall having women as both the captain and the first officer.
The Voxfamily just returned from a week in Hawaii. I leave the blogging at home on family vacations, so I'll share some of the experience this week.
We spent the whole week on Oahu, which contains about 80 percent of the state's population. We stayed at the biggest resort in Waikiki, which was a wonderful place. Since we live in Hanover, we have no need to "get away from it all" on vacation. We actually like to be among people and on this trip deliberately tried to avoid an isolated feeling. Even so, I found each place we visited to be not quite unspoiled, but far less crowded than I expected for the first week of summer.
It seems like I am not alone in my assessment. This story from last week's USA Today reports that convention bookings at the new Hawaii Convention Center (shown below) are down.
According to the story:
Even paradise, it seems, can have a down year.
Only 16 out-of-state conventions are booked in 2008 for the $350 million Hawaii Convention Center, which was built by the state on the edge of Waikiki nine years ago to attract more business conferences.
The number is less than half the 35 conventions that are booked for 2007. In 2006, there were 37.
The culprits? The story continues:
Waikiki's hotel prices, second in the country only to New York City's, are a contributing factor, says Paul Brewbaker, Bank of Hawaii's chief economist.
Through May, the average room rate in Hawaii was more than $198 a night, according to consultants Hospitality Advisors, based in Hawaii.
The high prices seem to be having an impact on quantity:
Hawaiian tourism has been virtually flat the past several years. The state welcomed about 7.5 million visitors in both 2005 and 2006, according to the state Department of Business Economic Development & Tourism. This year, it forecasts 7.6 million visitors.
However, the University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization predicts that overall tourism numbers will actually drop by 0.2% this year.
Meanwhile, overall tourism to the United States has steadily grown since 2003. Last year, the USA received 51.1 million tourists, and officials expect a 3% increase this year. Kathryn Goldstein, spokeswoman for Meeting Professionals International, a Dallas-based trade group, said concerns over Hawaii as a convention location might depend on the issues facing a specific group.
So look for prices of trips to the Aloha State to fall over time.
I know I complain a lot about the hassles of modern travel. I picked up a pamphlet from a Wells Fargo History exhibit yesterday that adds a little perspective. From the Omaha Herald in 1877:
Sometimes, I just need a name. I need the name of the person employed by United Airlines who thought that this movie
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The reported death toll from this morning's explosions in London is listed as "at least two," but that seems likely to rise. Prime Minister Blair asserted that it was "reasonably clear" that these attacks were designed to coincide with the opening of the G-8 summit in Scotland. He also captured the essence of what terrorists are about with this statement:
He added that it was "particularly barbaric" that the attacks had occurred during a summit intended to aid people in developing nations.
Recent intelligence indicated that London was considered a prime target for Islamic extremists, in part because al-Qaida was having difficulty getting people into the United States, the official said.
Congratulations to London for its winning bid to host the 2012 Olympics. The Samwick family plans to attend, and we'll be live-blogging it on our cell phone, PDA, wristwatch, or whatever the latest gadgetry turns out to be.
I think Londoners are some of the best sports fans anywhere. Judging the English based on the conduct of soccer hooligans would be a bit like judging Americans based on the end zone of an Oakland Raiders game. I recall being in London during the 1994 World Cup, when England failed to qualify but the U.S. and Ireland were in and doing well. I drank for free that week in every pub.
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I spent last Friday in Cincinnati. It had all the trappings of a city--but without the crowds. A couple of examples:
1) I arrived early for my meeting. I went to a Starbucks downtown around one o'clock. Plenty of open tables.
2) I went to park my rental car in a downtown garage. Plenty of spots in the early afternoon. Plenty of spots in the late afternoon, even as the first pitch of a Reds game was drawing closer.
3) Most amazingly, I've got an early evening flight out of CVG. I am expecting the usual Friday zoo, like LaGuardia or Baltimore. Not even close. Not much traffic on the outside, and no chaos on the inside. Minimal lines going through security. Easy to get a table to catch a quick dinner. Yes, the ticket on Delta was about twice what it would have been on a Southwest flight of the same distance. But imagine spending more and actually getting more. That's a rarity.
I tip my hat to the Queen City.
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