tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8537995.post112293922391431052..comments2023-10-29T10:54:58.681-04:00Comments on Vox Baby: It's Been Mostly Dead All DayAndrewhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13514024573333057559noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8537995.post-1123232331822685322005-08-05T04:58:00.000-04:002005-08-05T04:58:00.000-04:00"I came to the conclusion that we would need 3.5 p..."I came to the conclusion that we would need 3.5 percent real GDP growth, with 3.3 percent productivity growth, to plug the 75-year gap holding all other factors constant. That strikes me as too high for a productivity growth assumption for SSA."<BR/><BR/>You are probably right, 3.3% strikes me as pretty high. But this ignores a couple things. One we are turning in 3.3% right as we speak. Two we Bruce Webbhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13222670342780912788noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8537995.post-1123122861064526802005-08-03T22:34:00.000-04:002005-08-03T22:34:00.000-04:00I blogged about the productivity assumptions here....I blogged about the productivity assumptions <A HREF="http://voxbaby.blogspot.com/2005/01/victor-does-heavy-lifting.html" REL="nofollow">here</A>. I came to the conclusion that we would need 3.5 percent real GDP growth, with 3.3 percent productivity growth, to plug the 75-year gap holding all other factors constant. That strikes me as too high for a productivity growth assumption for SSA. I amAndrewhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13514024573333057559noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8537995.post-1123037038695597292005-08-02T22:43:00.000-04:002005-08-02T22:43:00.000-04:00I followed your link. Your 34% lumped Medicare in ...I followed your link. Your 34% lumped Medicare in with Social Security. Either you knew that and were deliberately distorting the debate over the specific question of Social Security solvency , or you didn't know that at all. Neither is very flattering to you.<BR/><BR/>And Medicare was both in the headline and the first paragraph of your [data]. There is a debate to be had on Medicare, and I am Bruce Webbhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13222670342780912788noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8537995.post-1123036572885951432005-08-02T22:36:00.000-04:002005-08-02T22:36:00.000-04:00What should be the public debate is the productivi...What should be the public debate is the productivity assumptions of Intermediate Cost. Why exactly should we be accepting projections that call for 2.0% productivity growth THIS year? And for productivity growth to NEVER exceed 2.0% in the future. But that is exactly what Intermediate Cost calls for <A HREF="http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/TR/TR05/V_economic.html#wp180099" REL="nofollow">2005 Report: Bruce Webbhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13222670342780912788noreply@blogger.com